The shifting sands of British voters

We live in interesting times to quote a very dully repeated cliche. The problem with interesting times is old assumptions go out the window.

The British voter is not a monolith. People vote based on circumstances as much as they vote the way their parents did. Assuming everything will stay the same is a fool's errand.

The local elections are proof if it were ever needed that the Conservative movement has wedged itself between a rock and a hard place and it is at risk of being pulled apart in a Labour Lib Dem and Green feeding frenzy at the next election.

The signs bode badly for Rishi Sunak who after inheriting a wounded, yet still well-placed Conservative party with a good majority in the House of Commons has seen the economic outlook go gloomy. Let’s be clear. We’re a long way away from the Boris bounce and the ‘stonking’ majority election victory of 2019.

The party now finds itself pulled between its past and present with no one looking to the future seemingly. The past being its Brexit drum-banging Boris bonanza of the late 2010s and the present its confused descent into populism and culture wars.

Whilst remaining these machinations wrinkle brows for political strategists in Millbank, it is positively infuriating for the electorate. Whilst the party loves to point at enemies everywhere it does nothing to fix the actual things people need a government to do. The NHS is in sickly health, wages stagnate or slump and things fall apart around us without the necessary care or maintenance needed. 

If you have a decent career you can still find yourself squeezed financially whilst basic services fall away around you. This isn’t even managed decline. This is national vandalism and it hasn’t gone unnoticed by the electorate.

The Conservative's biggest danger has always been complacency. The assumption is that everyone is a bit Tory at heart and will eventually become more conservative with age and as they acquire money, a home and a family. They’ve planned for every eventuality except what happens if no one actually gets those things. Hence we are now seeing scores of millennials and Gen Z breaking the old trends as they are not gradually leaning more steadily right as they advance into their 30s and 40s. 

To be fair, this resigned belief in the Tories' electoral invincibility is well established by this point. That said, it is wrong and doesn’t appear to recognise people are no longer willing to nod along with the status quo.

The old tastes of UK voters are still broadly there but people are willing to chance on a new direction. Parties seem to have noticed this and are pivoting to hoovering up the disillusioned electorate. It’s not inconceivable to imagine the Lib Dems becoming the defacto party of the metropolitan NIMBYs, whilst the Greens increasingly attract progressive NIMBYs. Labour has everything to gain in urban former industrial areas in England and basically much of Scotland and Wales.

This has been tracking gradually in this direction and the ongoing incumbency of a Tory party that promises much and delivers nothing but scraps, cuts and culture wars on hypothetical threats becomes a drain on everyone’s patience.

Does this mean a Labour election victory is all but assured in the next General Election? Not at all. 

There are quite a lot of possibilities that could come up but many of them probably result in a Labour government of some shape. 2019 is likely to be a one-off, not least because elderly Brexit voters have died off and many others are utterly sick to the back teeth of the whole project given the poor spoils gained from the whole mess. There’s also no more Corbyn boogeyman to spook suburban curtain twitchers.

With no eyes on the future and opportunistic inroads appearing for rival parties I am doubtful the Tories have either the vision nor the political coalition to stay in power past 2024. Good riddance.